Where’s the Money? The Profitability of Poker Tables
Do we really know what makes a poker table profitable, or are we just relying on assumptions? When scanning for a good game, are we actually prioritizing the factors that matter most? To get a definitive answer, we analyzed 5,000 different table configurations, considering:
Different types of fish (with a max of 1 or 2 at the table)
Loss rates at various stack depths (sourced from PLO Mastermind)
Rake structures (net rake of 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 bb/100 - assuming no change based on table size)
Table sizes (3 - 7 handed)
Assumed no edge for or against other regs, and net remaining bb/100 was distributed evenly (this will be impacted by position that you have on the fish)
The goal? To quantify the impact of each factor on EV in BB/100, so we can finally pinpoint what truly drives profitability.
How we did it?
Regression Analysis (OLS): Measured the direct impact of each factor while controlling for others.
Interaction Effects: Captured relationships between variables (e.g., deep stacks offsetting reg-heavy tables).
Decision Tree Modeling: Identified non-linear patterns in profitability.
Here’s what the data revealed:
The direction of the results wasn't surprising—everyone knows that fewer regs, better fish, and deep stacks make for more profitable games. But what really stood out was the weighting of each factor.
The biggest takeaway? Rake structure was by far the least important factor in table selection. That might shock some players, considering how much we all complain about rake. But in reality, rake only becomes a problem when we’re failing to table select properly—sitting in reg-heavy lineups where we can’t overcome it.
This doesn’t mean high-rake environments should be avoided entirely—they can still be far more profitable than low-rake sites if you’re finding the right mix of weak players and deep stacks. The key is to ensure you’re ticking the right boxes.
Here are a few real-world table scenarios and their BB/100 profitability, showing how different factors play out in practice:
The data is clear—your ability to find the right tables has a bigger impact on your win rate than almost anything else. You can be a great technical player, but if you’re battling strong regs at bad tables, you’re leaving money on the table every session.
The best winner aren’t just the best at poker—they’re the best at game selection. They know how to:
Identify the most profitable fish and adjust accordingly.
Recognize when a table is unplayable (even if the rake is low).
Maximize deep stack edges and exploit weaker players.
Put themselves in the most profitable spots—every session.
If you want to take your poker game to the next level, learning how to truly master table selection is essential.
Work With Me and Start Winning More
I’ve helped players crush PLO by showing them exactly where and how to play to maximize their edge. If you’re tired of feeling like you’re constantly breaking even or getting beaten by regs, it’s time to start making data-driven decisions that actually impact your win rate.
Learn how to find the best tables every session
Master the key exploits against weak players
Optimize your game selection to skyrocket your EV
